The 2018 crypto bear market has been different from the previous downtrends the crypto market has experienced.
Initially, it was termed a correction, but now the correction narrative seems not to fit anymore. There seems to be no technical or fundamental reason why the market is down. The basic common-sense explanation is that more money is going out than coming in.
Interestingly, people are not selling because something is wrong. Rather, they are selling because their expectations have not been met.
There are traders and investors who short the market because they think it is overpriced. The fundamentals are still the same, and hence Bitcoin remains an efficient means of cross-border financial transaction.
Various top officials in the tech and financial industry continue to echo that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are here to stay. And as such, they are subject to economic cycles just like other assets and commodities.
Bear markets are generally regarded as the time to buy. But because most people have watched their assets get so devalued, they get beaten down by their emotions.
In crypto’s case, the uncertainty of the market makes the industry one for a long-term keep. The problem arises when non-traders want to make successful short-term trades. Smart retail investors stick to a strategy, such as the 5-coin portfolio structure.
A bull run will return someday to the crypto market, whether in 2019 or as far away as 2024 (hopefully before then!). Some present-day coins will be close to absolute zero by then; some coins won’t be different from what they are today, and some coins will be worth multiple times what they are today.
There is already a prediction that the crypto market will be valued at 10x the level it is today. Joey Krug, CIO of Pantera Capital, says the market could be valued at over $2 trillion in the next bull run.
Here is a look at some coins I think could be at least 10x their value when the bulls kick back in.
The choice of 10x is an arbitrary number, not based on any technical analysis. Rather, it is just a way of gauging projects with strong fundamentals that will likely see a significant surge when the market turns. These cryptocurrencies could conceivably experience 20x or more in value — however, 10X expresses moderate optimism.
Disclaimer: This is just an opinion. This article is meant to be used only as guidance and is not meant to be financial advice. There is no substitute for doing your own research and, as always, don’t invest more than you’re willing to lose.
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and the market leader of the industry.
It was initially created as a peer-to-peer mode of payment, but now the case for it to be a store of value is much stronger than its currency use. In fact, some popular figures in the crypto space have even advocated not using Bitcoin for everyday transactions.
For example, Bitcoin developer Jimmy Song suggests a roundabout way of using Bitcoin to pay your daily expenses in one lump sum:
This idea sounds good from a store of value perspective. However, for those who think of Bitcoin as an alternative to fiat, it sounds counter-intuitive and detrimental to the goal of mass adoption.
Nevertheless, everybody seems to agree that more transactions on the Bitcoin network is a good thing.
There are a few criteria when considering which coins that could be worth 10x their current value in the next bull run.
The first is the amount of development currently taking place on the platform. While many other crypto projects are struggling with development based on funding, Bitcoin appears to be capitalized enough to avoid this. For any cryptocurrency to rise to 10X its current value, it first has to survive this bear market.
Many crypto projects have already stagnated in development. Bitcoin, however, has the strength of a decade behind it.
Right in the midst of this bear market, Bitcoin is still experiencing development, especially on the Lightning Network, which will bring low-cost, scalable, instantaneous payments across blockchains.
Another criterion is the strength of the community. Bitcoin has already survived several bear trends in the past. Most of the older members of the Bitcoin community are unfazed by the bear market.
In fact, Erik Voorhees, CEO of ShapeShift, tweeted this:
In the real-world relevance narrative, Bitcoin is growing to become a store of value, as suggested by one of the most important books about Bitcoin, The Bitcoin Standard. There is also the possibility that Bitcoin will not only challenge the $7 trillion gold market but also arts, paintings, and every other commodity used to store wealth.
Two other points of consideration are scalability and mass adoption.
The Lightning Network is already on the way to solving Bitcoin’s scalability problem, although it will take some time before it is perfected.
If perfected by the next bull run, it coulddrive the value of Bitcoin high. This is because the issue of low transaction speeds will forever be resolved, and there will be little or no reason to use centralized systems.
Mass adoption has already begun for Bitcoin. Institutional investors are already getting lured in, and it is only a matter of time before a Bitcoin ETF is approved.
Moreover, it is getting easier for people to buy Bitcoin with easy-to-use exchanges and mobile platforms. It is almost certain that Bitcoin will survive this bear market, and with these points of consideration, it has the definite potential to grow to 10x its current value in the next bull run.
10x the current value of Bitcoin puts it at about $35,000, which equals a market cap of about $735 billion.
Ethereum has been seriously hit by the bear market, with its value dropping more than 90% from its all-time high. Ethereum lost its 2nd position in market-cap size to Ripple as the price drop of Ethereum grew steeper.
The impact of this can be seen in various projects connected to Ethereum, especially recently when ConsenSys had to lay off 13% of its staff.
Nevertheless, Ethereum still remains a project to watch on the crypto space.
There are signs that Ethereum could make a valuation comeback and grow to over 10 times its current value in the next bull run.
Even though ConsenSys had to lay off staff recently, the organization still has over 500 people working on dapp development on Ethereum. The layoffs have been expressed by the organization as part of a restructuring to make the company more efficient.
The high level of development on Ethereum still calls for some faith in the project.
The Ethereum community remains strong and active during this bear period. The narrative of Ethereum remains that it is still a preferred platform for dapps and smart contracts.
Ethereum is also working towards solving its scalability problem through solutions such as sharding and the Casper protocol. If Ethereum achieves this before the next bull run, there is a strong likelihood that investors and developers will come flocking back, giving the price of ETH a much-needed boost.
Ethereum’s price currently hovers around the $100 mark. 10x that price would be $1,000.
Ethereum already went beyond this mark in the 2017 bull run which indicates that if the platform scales, a bull run could send it well over $1,000. At this price, the market cap will be about $100 billion.
Monero is arguably the most popular cryptocurrency in the privacy and anonymity space.
The primary purpose of Monero is to facilitate private transactions and fungibility, allowing value to be moved anonymously around the world. Monero stands ahead of other privacy-focused coins such as Zcash and Dash, as it is private, untraceable, fungible, and decentralized.
Monero has a concise roadmap that records its gradual development.
Its community is not as large as those of some other crypto projects, but they are very committed to the project. The Monero community has remained unfazed, even as its price has dropped by about 90% in this bear market.
Monero has a scalability issue like most blockchains. While Monero’s scalability issue is not as serious as that of Bitcoin or Ethereum yet, it is just as concerning.
A rise in the popularity of Monero might test its current scalability solution. Monero has a dynamic block size which is expected to aid its scaling — however, a more robust scaling solution will be required. T
he current scaling solution Monero is working on is known as RuffCT. If the blockchain scales successfully, that will give a huge boost to the cryptocurrency.
The case for Monero surging 10x is the lack of privacy demonstrated by most large tech companies. While the majority of people seem either unaware or unconcerned about how much their privacy is infringed on, recent scandals with data harvesting and other invasive tactics have put this issue on the forefront.
Monero is currently priced at about $44. A 10x increase in price would take it to $440.
Monero’s price already went past this value in the 2017 bull run. Such a price would make Monero market cap worth around $7.4 billion.
Another cryptocurrency that currently shows promise in this bear market is Tron.
Despite the bear trend, the developments the project made in 2018 are remarkable. Tron launched its own mainnet, bought BitTorrent, and recently had some dapp developers on other platforms move their projects to Tron.
These are all good signs for the crypto project, despite the bear market seeing the coin fall by more than 93% from its all-time high.
Development in Tron has been growing significantly, with the team being transparent about the current status of development to the community via the Tron blog.
The Tron community is also very strong, and growing stronger as Tron considers the adoption of the privacy feature on its blockchain.
Concerning scalability, Tron is quite ahead in the race, achieving a speed of 2,000 transactions per second, which is obviously a desirable trait in a blockchain.
In fact, Tron recently boasted of surpassing Ethereum in dapp usage. Tron remains a platform for dapps, but it takes mass adoption seriously. This can be observed with Project Atlas, where Tron and BitTorrent are setting up their platforms to create the future of file sharing.
Tron is currently priced at about $0.013. A 10x in price would make it $0.13. In 2017, Tron recorded an all-time high value of $0.23.
Tron looks like it will get back over $0.13 when this bear market subsides, and it might even grow to 20x or 30x of its current level today. At 20x, Tron will be valued at $0.23 and the resulting market cap will be about $23 billion.
Every financially priced product experiences economic cycles. The major cycles are known as the bull and bear. Products are said to be overpriced in the bull market and underpriced in the bear market. No aspect of the cycle is permanent — one gives way to the other in time.
No one knows for certain when a bull market will come again, but as long as the industry exists and is still valuable, a bull market will surely return. The cryptocurrency that will thrive in the bull market will be one that has undergone remarkable developments (even in times like this), with a strong community, a real-world application narrative, scalability, and proper positioning for mass adoption.
Those on this list are those with strong fundamentals, which mean they have the potential to not only survive this bear market but thrive once the next bull market comes along.
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