After a string of delays, the much-anticipated Ethereum “upgrade” known as Constantinople has finally received a block number on which the upgrade will be scheduled to occur.
The Ethereum development team reached an agreement during their latest development meeting on December 7, 2018 in which they had agreed to upgrade the network on block number 7,080,000, expected to be hit on around January 14, 2019.
There had previously been many reports that the upgrade would occur during mid-January and they can now be confirmed.
Constantinople was initially expected to launch in October 2018 but after the upgrade went to the Ropsten testnet, the blockchain had seemingly stalled for over 2 hours which caused the upgrade to be delayed.
The Constantinople upgrade, or hard fork, will implement 5 separate Ethereum Improvement Protocols (EIPs) that will help to ensure a smooth transition for when Ethereum decides to move from an energy intensive Proof-of-work algorithm to a more energy-efficient Proof-of-stage algorithm.
The Constantinople upgrade is only one step in Ethereum long-term plans to increase its network scalability. The upgrade is said to help improve the networks efficiency before more technical upgrades such as Casper and Serenity can be incorporated.
Ethereum has been in much need for an upgrade for a very long time, and this initial upgrade could provide a catalyst to bring Ethereum back above the $100 handle as the hard fork approaches.
Let us take a look at the market action for Ethereum and highlight some potential important support and resistance levels moving forward.
Ethereum has seen a small price decline totaling 1.17% over the past 24-hour period of trading as the market now is exchanging hands at a price around $91.92, at the time of writing.
The Ethereum market has seen a significant 16% price drop over the past 7 trading days, and an even more extreme 56% price plummet throughout the past 30 trading days.
The Ethereum project is now ranked in 3rd position according to its market cap ranking and holds a total market cap value of $9.59 billion. The 40-month old cryptocurrency is now trading at a value that is a steep 93% lower than its all-time high price.
Analyzing price action from the short-term perspective above, we can see the relentless price decline which began during November 2018 and continued during December 2018. This bearish market movement saw Ethereum drop from a high above $200 to a low of $83 during December 2018.
We can see that the market has recently found a form of relatively strong support, over the past 6 trading days, provided by a short-term downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in purple) priced at $92.10.
This level of support has prevented the market from closing below and heading further lower.
Although November and December 2018 has seen consistent price declines in the ETH/USD market, price action has shown a short period of stability as the bulls battle aggressively to defend the $92.10 handle.
We can consider that the bearish market has continued, provided that price action heads further lower and closes below the $90 handle.
If the market does fall through the support provided by the short-term downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (Drawn in purple) priced at $92.10 and the following psychological support at $90, we can expect further support below to be located at the medium-term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level (Drawn in blue) priced at $84.03.
If the sellers continue to push price action lower, we can then expect more support to be located at the psychological round number support levels at $80 and $70, followed by more solid support at the medium-term downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in blue) priced at $63.80.
If the bulls regain some confidence with the looming network upgrade and start to push price action higher, we can expect immediate significant resistance above to be located at the previous long-term downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in green) priced at $100.46.
The resistance here is further bolstered by the fact that the $100 level is a round number level which provides further psychological resistance.
Further resistance above the $100 handle can then be expected at the previous combined area of resistance provided by a medium-term downside 1.618 FIbonacci Extension level (drawn in orange) priced at $108, followed by the $120 handle.
The RSI is still trading well below the 50 handle which indicates that the bears are still in control of the market momentum.
If we see the RSI begin to rise, we can assume that the sellers are beginning to run out of steam which may allow the bulls to step in and push the market higher. A break above the 50 handle would confirm that the buyers are once again back in control of the market momentum.
Over the past month, the market has consistently remained below the 7-day EMA (blue moving average). If we see price action breaking above the 7-day EMA, this will serve as the first signal that the previous bear trend has started to show some signs of reversing.
Although Constantinople will not provide the needed throughput for the Ethereum market, any upgrade to the sluggish network which exists today can be seen a positive move. The Ethereum network has long been held back due to its inability to provide a scaling solution as the transactions per second rate remains one of the lowest in the top 10 ranked coins.
As the upgrade comes closer, we can expect the market to react promisingly as investors regain confidence that the Ethereum development team can continue to provide the much-needed scaling.
From the market perspective, the $90 handle will be a crucial level to prevent Ethereum from sliding further lower. On the other hand, price action will need to break above the $100 handle before it is able to continue to regain some of the losses incurred over the past month.
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